Research-only · price-first · daily UTC

Bitcoin Price Regime R3.1

A deterministic risk-regime indicator built only from free Binance BTCUSDT daily candles. Optional macro, ETF, on-chain, liquidity, sentiment and derivatives data never block the score. It is a risk overlay, not a price target and not an automated trading system.

R3.1 primary historical gate: REJECT. Frozen R3 benchmark gate: REJECT. Historical replay is not proof of future returns. Live trading and order placement are disabled. The latest fully closed UTC daily candle is included.
Confirmed state
HOLD
R3.1 score
+5 / 100
BTCUSDT close
$64,107
Latest closed day
04 Aug 2026
200DMA
$70,850
Historical gate
REJECT
Frozen R3 state / score
HOLD · -18
Frozen R3 gate
REJECT

Daily candles, 200DMA and R3.1 regime

Last 365 closed daily candles. Background colors are the confirmed state; the lower panel is the raw score. Green/teal means BUY/STRONG BUY, orange/red means REDUCE/SELL-RISK-OFF.

$54k$65k$78k$94k$112k$134k-50-20+0+20+502025-08-05 O 115055.03 H 115127.81 L 112650.00 C 114129.75 · BUY +202025-08-06 O 114129.75 H 115716.00 L 113355.13 C 114992.27 · BUY +212025-08-07 O 114992.27 H 117621.00 L 114259.00 C 117472.01 · BUY +232025-08-08 O 117472.02 H 117630.00 L 115878.71 C 116674.74 · BUY +212025-08-09 O 116674.74 H 117944.05 L 116299.13 C 116462.25 · BUY +192025-08-10 O 116462.25 H 119311.11 L 116460.63 C 119294.01 · BUY +222025-08-11 O 119294.27 H 122335.16 L 118050.11 C 118686.00 · BUY +212025-08-12 O 118686.00 H 120324.43 L 118207.47 C 120134.08 · BUY +222025-08-13 O 120134.09 H 123667.79 L 118920.92 C 123306.43 · BUY +242025-08-14 O 123306.44 H 124474.00 L 117180.00 C 118295.09 · BUY +192025-08-15 O 118295.09 H 119216.82 L 116803.99 C 117342.05 · BUY +172025-08-16 O 117342.04 H 117898.99 L 117143.98 C 117380.66 · HOLD +162025-08-17 O 117380.66 H 118575.00 L 117172.21 C 117405.01 · HOLD +172025-08-18 O 117405.01 H 117543.75 L 114640.14 C 116227.05 · HOLD +142025-08-19 O 116227.05 H 116725.69 L 112732.58 C 112872.94 · HOLD +82025-08-20 O 112872.95 H 114615.38 L 112380.00 C 114271.24 · HOLD +102025-08-21 O 114271.23 H 114821.76 L 112015.67 C 112500.00 · HOLD +72025-08-22 O 112500.00 H 117429.05 L 111684.79 C 116935.99 · HOLD +132025-08-23 O 116936.00 H 117030.00 L 114560.00 C 115438.05 · HOLD +102025-08-24 O 115438.06 H 115666.68 L 110680.00 C 113493.59 · HOLD +72025-08-25 O 113493.59 H 113667.28 L 109274.10 C 110111.98 · HOLD +32025-08-26 O 110111.98 H 112371.00 L 108666.66 C 111763.22 · HOLD +42025-08-27 O 111763.22 H 112625.00 L 110345.42 C 111262.01 · HOLD +52025-08-28 O 111262.01 H 113485.90 L 110862.42 C 112566.90 · HOLD +72025-08-29 O 112566.90 H 112638.64 L 107463.90 C 108377.40 · HOLD +22025-08-30 O 108377.40 H 108926.15 L 107350.10 C 108816.33 · HOLD +32025-08-31 O 108816.33 H 109480.02 L 108076.93 C 108246.35 · HOLD +32025-09-01 O 108246.36 H 109912.40 L 107255.00 C 109237.42 · HOLD +52025-09-02 O 109237.43 H 111771.52 L 108393.39 C 111240.01 · HOLD +62025-09-03 O 111240.01 H 112575.27 L 110528.71 C 111705.71 · HOLD +72025-09-04 O 111705.72 H 112180.00 L 109329.12 C 110730.87 · HOLD +62025-09-05 O 110730.87 H 113384.62 L 110206.96 C 110659.99 · HOLD +62025-09-06 O 110660.00 H 111307.70 L 109977.00 C 110187.97 · HOLD +52025-09-07 O 110187.98 H 111600.00 L 110180.00 C 111137.34 · HOLD +62025-09-08 O 111137.35 H 112924.37 L 110621.78 C 112065.23 · HOLD +72025-09-09 O 112065.23 H 113293.29 L 110766.66 C 111546.39 · HOLD +62025-09-10 O 111546.38 H 114313.13 L 110917.45 C 113960.00 · HOLD +102025-09-11 O 113960.00 H 115488.09 L 113430.00 C 115482.69 · HOLD +122025-09-12 O 115482.69 H 116665.63 L 114740.99 C 116029.42 · HOLD +122025-09-13 O 116029.41 H 116298.78 L 115127.27 C 115918.29 · HOLD +142025-09-14 O 115918.29 H 116165.19 L 115135.00 C 115268.01 · HOLD +132025-09-15 O 115268.01 H 116757.99 L 114384.00 C 115349.71 · HOLD +142025-09-16 O 115349.71 H 116964.27 L 114737.11 C 116788.96 · HOLD +162025-09-17 O 116788.96 H 117286.73 L 114720.81 C 116447.59 · HOLD +162025-09-18 O 116447.60 H 117900.00 L 116092.76 C 117073.53 · HOLD +182025-09-19 O 117073.53 H 117459.99 L 115100.00 C 115632.38 · HOLD +162025-09-20 O 115632.39 H 116121.81 L 115408.47 C 115685.63 · HOLD +172025-09-21 O 115685.63 H 115819.06 L 115188.00 C 115232.29 · HOLD +142025-09-22 O 115232.29 H 115379.25 L 111800.00 C 112650.99 · HOLD +102025-09-23 O 112650.99 H 113290.50 L 111458.73 C 111998.80 · HOLD +102025-09-24 O 111998.80 H 113940.00 L 111042.66 C 113307.00 · HOLD +142025-09-25 O 113307.01 H 113510.23 L 108631.51 C 108994.49 · HOLD +62025-09-26 O 108994.49 H 110300.00 L 108620.07 C 109643.46 · HOLD +72025-09-27 O 109643.46 H 109743.91 L 109064.40 C 109635.85 · HOLD +62025-09-28 O 109635.85 H 112350.00 L 109189.99 C 112163.95 · HOLD +122025-09-29 O 112163.96 H 114400.00 L 111560.65 C 114311.96 · HOLD +162025-09-30 O 114311.97 H 114792.00 L 112656.27 C 114048.93 · HOLD +152025-10-01 O 114048.94 H 118649.10 L 113966.67 C 118594.99 · HOLD +202025-10-02 O 118594.99 H 121022.07 L 118279.31 C 120529.35 · HOLD +222025-10-03 O 120529.35 H 123894.99 L 119248.30 C 122232.00 · BUY +232025-10-04 O 122232.21 H 122800.00 L 121510.00 C 122391.00 · BUY +232025-10-05 O 122390.99 H 125708.42 L 122136.00 C 123482.31 · BUY +242025-10-06 O 123482.32 H 126199.63 L 123084.00 C 124658.54 · BUY +252025-10-07 O 124658.54 H 125126.00 L 120574.94 C 121332.95 · BUY +222025-10-08 O 121332.96 H 124197.25 L 121066.14 C 123306.00 · BUY +222025-10-09 O 123306.01 H 123762.94 L 119651.47 C 121662.40 · BUY +202025-10-10 O 121662.41 H 122550.00 L 102000.00 C 112774.50 · BUY +52025-10-11 O 112774.49 H 113322.39 L 109561.59 C 110644.40 · BUY +12025-10-12 O 110644.40 H 115770.00 L 109565.06 C 114958.80 · HOLD +62025-10-13 O 114958.81 H 115963.81 L 113616.50 C 115166.00 · HOLD +72025-10-14 O 115166.00 H 115409.96 L 109866.00 C 113028.14 · HOLD +42025-10-15 O 113028.13 H 113612.35 L 110164.00 C 110763.28 · HOLD +12025-10-16 O 110763.28 H 111982.45 L 107427.00 C 108194.28 · HOLD -62025-10-17 O 108194.27 H 109240.00 L 103528.23 C 106431.68 · HOLD -82025-10-18 O 106431.68 H 107499.00 L 106322.20 C 107185.01 · HOLD -82025-10-19 O 107185.00 H 109450.07 L 106103.36 C 108642.78 · HOLD -62025-10-20 O 108642.77 H 111705.56 L 107402.52 C 110532.09 · HOLD +12025-10-21 O 110532.09 H 114000.00 L 107473.72 C 108297.67 · HOLD -82025-10-22 O 108297.66 H 109163.88 L 106666.69 C 107567.44 · HOLD -82025-10-23 O 107567.45 H 111293.61 L 107500.00 C 110078.18 · HOLD +32025-10-24 O 110078.19 H 112104.98 L 109700.01 C 111004.89 · HOLD +32025-10-25 O 111004.90 H 111943.19 L 110672.86 C 111646.27 · HOLD +62025-10-26 O 111646.27 H 115466.80 L 111260.45 C 114559.40 · HOLD +102025-10-27 O 114559.41 H 116400.00 L 113830.01 C 114107.65 · HOLD +92025-10-28 O 114107.65 H 116086.00 L 112211.00 C 112898.45 · HOLD +62025-10-29 O 112898.44 H 113643.73 L 109200.00 C 110021.29 · HOLD -72025-10-30 O 110021.30 H 111592.00 L 106304.34 C 108322.88 · HOLD -92025-10-31 O 108322.87 H 111190.00 L 108275.28 C 109608.01 · HOLD -82025-11-01 O 109608.01 H 110564.49 L 109394.81 C 110098.10 · HOLD -82025-11-02 O 110098.10 H 111250.01 L 109471.34 C 110540.68 · HOLD -82025-11-03 O 110540.69 H 110750.00 L 105306.56 C 106583.04 · HOLD -122025-11-04 O 106583.05 H 107299.00 L 98944.36 C 101497.22 · HOLD -152025-11-05 O 101497.23 H 104534.74 L 98966.80 C 103885.16 · HOLD -162025-11-06 O 103885.16 H 104200.00 L 100300.95 C 101346.04 · HOLD -172025-11-07 O 101346.04 H 104096.36 L 99260.86 C 103339.08 · HOLD -182025-11-08 O 103339.09 H 103406.22 L 101454.00 C 102312.94 · HOLD -182025-11-09 O 102312.95 H 105495.62 L 101400.00 C 104722.96 · HOLD -122025-11-10 O 104722.95 H 106670.11 L 104265.02 C 106011.13 · HOLD -102025-11-11 O 106011.13 H 107500.00 L 102476.09 C 103058.99 · HOLD -152025-11-12 O 103059.00 H 105333.33 L 100813.59 C 101654.37 · HOLD -142025-11-13 O 101654.37 H 104085.01 L 98000.40 C 99692.02 · HOLD -152025-11-14 O 99692.03 H 99866.02 L 94012.45 C 94594.00 · HOLD -152025-11-15 O 94594.00 H 96846.68 L 94558.49 C 95596.24 · HOLD -152025-11-16 O 95596.23 H 96635.11 L 93005.55 C 94261.44 · HOLD -142025-11-17 O 94261.45 H 96043.00 L 91220.00 C 92215.14 · HOLD -152025-11-18 O 92215.14 H 93836.01 L 89253.78 C 92960.83 · HOLD -162025-11-19 O 92960.83 H 92980.22 L 88608.00 C 91554.96 · HOLD -172025-11-20 O 91554.96 H 93160.00 L 86100.00 C 86637.23 · HOLD -172025-11-21 O 86637.22 H 87498.94 L 80600.00 C 85129.43 · HOLD -192025-11-22 O 85129.42 H 85620.00 L 83500.00 C 84739.74 · HOLD -192025-11-23 O 84739.75 H 88127.64 L 84667.57 C 86830.00 · HOLD -202025-11-24 O 86830.00 H 89228.00 L 85272.00 C 88300.01 · HOLD -222025-11-25 O 88300.01 H 88519.99 L 86116.00 C 87369.96 · HOLD -212025-11-26 O 87369.97 H 90656.08 L 86306.77 C 90484.02 · REDUCE -232025-11-27 O 90484.01 H 91950.00 L 90089.91 C 91333.95 · REDUCE -232025-11-28 O 91333.94 H 93092.00 L 90180.63 C 90890.70 · REDUCE -232025-11-29 O 90890.71 H 91165.65 L 90155.47 C 90802.44 · REDUCE -232025-11-30 O 90802.44 H 92000.01 L 90336.90 C 90360.00 · REDUCE -232025-12-01 O 90360.01 H 90417.00 L 83822.76 C 86286.01 · REDUCE -242025-12-02 O 86286.01 H 92307.65 L 86184.39 C 91277.88 · REDUCE -262025-12-03 O 91277.88 H 94150.00 L 90990.23 C 93429.95 · REDUCE -252025-12-04 O 93429.95 H 94080.00 L 90889.00 C 92078.06 · REDUCE -232025-12-05 O 92078.06 H 92692.36 L 88056.00 C 89330.04 · REDUCE -242025-12-06 O 89330.04 H 90289.97 L 88908.01 C 89236.79 · REDUCE -232025-12-07 O 89236.80 H 91760.00 L 87719.28 C 90395.31 · REDUCE -232025-12-08 O 90395.32 H 92287.15 L 89612.00 C 90634.34 · REDUCE -232025-12-09 O 90634.35 H 94588.99 L 89500.00 C 92678.80 · REDUCE -212025-12-10 O 92678.81 H 94476.00 L 91563.15 C 92015.37 · REDUCE -222025-12-11 O 92015.38 H 93555.00 L 89260.63 C 92513.38 · REDUCE -212025-12-12 O 92513.38 H 92754.00 L 89480.00 C 90268.42 · REDUCE -222025-12-13 O 90268.43 H 90634.55 L 89766.39 C 90240.01 · REDUCE -212025-12-14 O 90240.00 H 90472.40 L 87577.36 C 88172.17 · REDUCE -182025-12-15 O 88172.16 H 90052.64 L 85146.64 C 86432.08 · REDUCE -202025-12-16 O 86432.08 H 88175.98 L 85266.00 C 87863.42 · HOLD -192025-12-17 O 87863.43 H 90365.85 L 85314.00 C 86243.22 · HOLD -192025-12-18 O 86243.23 H 89477.61 L 84450.01 C 85516.41 · HOLD -192025-12-19 O 85516.41 H 89399.97 L 85110.24 C 88136.94 · HOLD -162025-12-20 O 88136.95 H 88573.07 L 87795.76 C 88360.90 · HOLD -122025-12-21 O 88360.91 H 89081.77 L 87600.04 C 88658.86 · HOLD -102025-12-22 O 88658.87 H 90588.23 L 87900.00 C 88620.79 · HOLD -92025-12-23 O 88620.79 H 88940.00 L 86601.90 C 87486.00 · HOLD -112025-12-24 O 87486.00 H 88049.89 L 86420.00 C 87669.45 · HOLD -112025-12-25 O 87669.44 H 88592.74 L 86934.72 C 87225.27 · HOLD -112025-12-26 O 87225.27 H 89567.75 L 86655.08 C 87369.56 · HOLD -112025-12-27 O 87369.56 H 87984.00 L 87253.05 C 87877.01 · HOLD -112025-12-28 O 87877.00 H 88088.75 L 87435.00 C 87952.71 · HOLD -102025-12-29 O 87952.71 H 90406.08 L 86806.50 C 87237.13 · HOLD -112025-12-30 O 87237.13 H 89400.00 L 86845.66 C 88485.49 · HOLD -82025-12-31 O 88485.50 H 89200.00 L 87250.00 C 87648.22 · HOLD -62026-01-01 O 87648.21 H 88919.45 L 87550.43 C 88839.04 · HOLD -52026-01-02 O 88839.05 H 90961.81 L 88379.88 C 89995.13 · HOLD -32026-01-03 O 89995.14 H 90741.16 L 89314.01 C 90628.01 · HOLD -12026-01-04 O 90628.01 H 91810.00 L 90628.00 C 91529.73 · HOLD +32026-01-05 O 91529.74 H 94789.08 L 91514.81 C 93859.71 · HOLD +62026-01-06 O 93859.71 H 94444.44 L 91262.94 C 93747.97 · HOLD +52026-01-07 O 93747.97 H 93747.97 L 90675.52 C 91364.16 · HOLD +22026-01-08 O 91364.16 H 91687.99 L 89311.00 C 91099.99 · HOLD +12026-01-09 O 91100.00 H 92082.55 L 89694.66 C 90641.28 · HOLD +12026-01-10 O 90641.27 H 90832.00 L 90404.00 C 90504.70 · HOLD +02026-01-11 O 90504.70 H 91283.89 L 90236.00 C 91013.65 · HOLD +22026-01-12 O 91013.66 H 92519.95 L 90128.44 C 91296.20 · HOLD +32026-01-13 O 91296.20 H 96495.00 L 91042.66 C 95414.00 · HOLD +92026-01-14 O 95413.99 H 97924.49 L 94559.28 C 96951.78 · HOLD +112026-01-15 O 96951.78 H 97193.34 L 95134.48 C 95604.80 · HOLD +102026-01-16 O 95604.81 H 95871.47 L 94293.46 C 95550.94 · HOLD +102026-01-17 O 95550.94 H 95639.45 L 95021.67 C 95147.77 · HOLD +92026-01-18 O 95147.77 H 95531.12 L 93615.40 C 93673.14 · HOLD +62026-01-19 O 93673.14 H 93673.14 L 91910.20 C 92631.00 · HOLD +52026-01-20 O 92630.99 H 92870.00 L 87895.98 C 88427.66 · HOLD -52026-01-21 O 88427.66 H 90574.00 L 87263.53 C 89454.73 · HOLD -42026-01-22 O 89454.73 H 90359.99 L 88515.37 C 89559.67 · HOLD -32026-01-23 O 89559.68 H 91224.99 L 88578.36 C 89600.26 · HOLD -32026-01-24 O 89600.26 H 89957.39 L 89162.08 C 89225.34 · HOLD -32026-01-25 O 89225.34 H 89319.13 L 86074.72 C 86670.36 · HOLD -92026-01-26 O 86670.36 H 88860.00 L 86509.63 C 88347.08 · HOLD -62026-01-27 O 88347.08 H 89523.16 L 87304.33 C 89250.00 · HOLD -42026-01-28 O 89249.99 H 90600.00 L 88833.65 C 89299.99 · HOLD -32026-01-29 O 89300.00 H 89348.00 L 83383.33 C 84650.16 · HOLD -142026-01-30 O 84650.16 H 84735.75 L 81118.00 C 84260.49 · HOLD -142026-01-31 O 84260.50 H 84270.02 L 75719.90 C 78741.09 · HOLD -212026-02-01 O 78741.10 H 79424.00 L 75700.00 C 76968.21 · HOLD -212026-02-02 O 76968.22 H 79360.00 L 74604.00 C 78738.61 · HOLD -202026-02-03 O 78738.60 H 79186.81 L 72945.50 C 75770.21 · HOLD -222026-02-04 O 75770.21 H 76971.52 L 71888.00 C 73165.83 · HOLD -222026-02-05 O 73165.84 H 73341.18 L 62345.00 C 62909.86 · REDUCE -282026-02-06 O 62909.87 H 71751.33 L 60000.00 C 70580.26 · REDUCE -302026-02-07 O 70580.26 H 71690.07 L 67300.00 C 69289.38 · REDUCE -312026-02-08 O 69289.37 H 72271.41 L 68888.00 C 70330.38 · REDUCE -312026-02-09 O 70330.38 H 71453.53 L 68308.00 C 70138.00 · REDUCE -312026-02-10 O 70138.00 H 70527.59 L 67800.00 C 68841.29 · REDUCE -322026-02-11 O 68841.28 H 69292.88 L 65756.00 C 67082.52 · REDUCE -312026-02-12 O 67082.52 H 68410.52 L 65118.00 C 66272.17 · REDUCE -312026-02-13 O 66272.17 H 69482.97 L 65872.46 C 68853.96 · REDUCE -312026-02-14 O 68853.97 H 70560.01 L 68730.13 C 69822.95 · REDUCE -312026-02-15 O 69822.94 H 70983.00 L 68000.00 C 68832.58 · REDUCE -312026-02-16 O 68832.59 H 70126.67 L 67294.11 C 68892.43 · REDUCE -312026-02-17 O 68892.43 H 69241.50 L 66621.06 C 67503.52 · REDUCE -312026-02-18 O 67503.52 H 68476.22 L 65870.00 C 66461.00 · REDUCE -302026-02-19 O 66461.00 H 67320.00 L 65631.83 C 67003.73 · REDUCE -302026-02-20 O 67003.73 H 68318.39 L 66280.20 C 68020.01 · REDUCE -302026-02-21 O 68020.00 H 68698.70 L 67534.69 C 67975.93 · REDUCE -302026-02-22 O 67975.93 H 68245.00 L 67190.00 C 67643.40 · REDUCE -302026-02-23 O 67643.39 H 67684.86 L 63888.79 C 64656.02 · REDUCE -312026-02-24 O 64656.01 H 65026.75 L 62510.28 C 64058.15 · REDUCE -312026-02-25 O 64058.15 H 69988.83 L 63913.27 C 67988.04 · REDUCE -312026-02-26 O 67988.04 H 68860.00 L 66500.00 C 67485.18 · REDUCE -312026-02-27 O 67485.19 H 68216.80 L 64914.46 C 65872.10 · REDUCE -312026-02-28 O 65872.09 H 67760.00 L 63030.00 C 66973.26 · REDUCE -302026-03-01 O 66973.26 H 68199.99 L 65056.00 C 65776.47 · REDUCE -302026-03-02 O 65776.48 H 70096.00 L 65259.21 C 68830.06 · REDUCE -282026-03-03 O 68830.06 H 69258.08 L 66158.00 C 68338.00 · REDUCE -272026-03-04 O 68338.01 H 74050.00 L 67400.00 C 72666.77 · REDUCE -212026-03-05 O 72666.77 H 73558.15 L 70645.47 C 70890.72 · REDUCE -232026-03-06 O 70891.02 H 71419.98 L 67744.78 C 68114.02 · REDUCE -252026-03-07 O 68114.02 H 68551.04 L 66915.26 C 67262.91 · REDUCE -172026-03-08 O 67262.91 H 68200.00 L 65618.49 C 65971.20 · REDUCE -192026-03-09 O 65971.20 H 69516.65 L 65821.97 C 68432.16 · HOLD -142026-03-10 O 68432.16 H 71777.00 L 68391.41 C 69948.63 · HOLD -112026-03-11 O 69948.64 H 71321.00 L 68977.91 C 70191.86 · HOLD -102026-03-12 O 70191.86 H 70800.00 L 69205.91 C 70541.34 · HOLD -72026-03-13 O 70541.34 H 73913.74 L 70386.01 C 70930.00 · HOLD -32026-03-14 O 70930.01 H 71307.92 L 70317.00 C 71211.95 · HOLD -12026-03-15 O 71211.95 H 73199.00 L 70858.82 C 72815.24 · HOLD +42026-03-16 O 72815.25 H 74909.08 L 72270.41 C 74884.67 · HOLD +92026-03-17 O 74884.67 H 76000.00 L 73399.19 C 73909.36 · HOLD +82026-03-18 O 73909.37 H 74672.34 L 70500.00 C 71246.54 · HOLD +12026-03-19 O 71246.55 H 71613.79 L 68793.35 C 69930.00 · HOLD -22026-03-20 O 69930.01 H 71367.00 L 69388.00 C 70510.73 · HOLD +12026-03-21 O 70510.73 H 71100.94 L 68571.42 C 68918.12 · HOLD -42026-03-22 O 68918.12 H 69588.79 L 67360.66 C 67859.00 · HOLD -72026-03-23 O 67859.00 H 71817.09 L 67445.18 C 70906.45 · HOLD +22026-03-24 O 70906.45 H 71400.00 L 68923.07 C 70556.74 · HOLD +12026-03-25 O 70556.74 H 72026.09 L 70408.00 C 71336.53 · HOLD +62026-03-26 O 71336.53 H 71436.82 L 68153.00 C 68820.31 · HOLD -12026-03-27 O 68820.31 H 69179.05 L 65548.25 C 66407.28 · HOLD -112026-03-28 O 66407.28 H 67288.94 L 65932.09 C 66377.03 · HOLD -102026-03-29 O 66377.04 H 67130.50 L 65000.00 C 66010.93 · HOLD -102026-03-30 O 66010.93 H 68169.65 L 65800.59 C 66797.37 · HOLD -82026-03-31 O 66797.38 H 68589.49 L 65998.05 C 68284.48 · HOLD -22026-04-01 O 68284.49 H 69310.00 L 67578.75 C 68113.92 · HOLD -42026-04-02 O 68113.92 H 68653.38 L 65712.12 C 66901.99 · HOLD -82026-04-03 O 66901.99 H 67370.42 L 66282.00 C 66964.30 · HOLD -82026-04-04 O 66964.29 H 67562.93 L 66775.91 C 67300.42 · HOLD -62026-04-05 O 67300.42 H 69136.20 L 66611.66 C 69034.18 · HOLD +12026-04-06 O 69034.18 H 70351.46 L 68300.00 C 68853.66 · HOLD +22026-04-07 O 68853.66 H 72761.00 L 67732.01 C 71924.22 · HOLD +112026-04-08 O 71924.22 H 72857.00 L 70707.23 C 71069.93 · HOLD +82026-04-09 O 71069.93 H 73145.00 L 70466.00 C 71787.97 · HOLD +82026-04-10 O 71787.98 H 73434.00 L 71426.15 C 72962.70 · HOLD +112026-04-11 O 72962.71 H 73790.00 L 72513.09 C 73043.16 · HOLD +102026-04-12 O 73043.16 H 73137.24 L 70505.88 C 70740.98 · HOLD +32026-04-13 O 70741.56 H 74900.00 L 70566.99 C 74417.99 · HOLD +92026-04-14 O 74418.00 H 76038.00 L 73795.47 C 74131.55 · HOLD +82026-04-15 O 74131.55 H 75425.00 L 73514.00 C 74809.99 · HOLD +82026-04-16 O 74809.99 H 75534.76 L 73309.85 C 75154.29 · HOLD +92026-04-17 O 75154.28 H 78333.00 L 74529.40 C 77072.00 · HOLD +132026-04-18 O 77072.01 H 77420.08 L 75445.16 C 75691.76 · HOLD +122026-04-19 O 75691.76 H 76240.66 L 73762.90 C 73801.79 · HOLD +82026-04-20 O 73801.80 H 76558.62 L 73724.31 C 75840.97 · HOLD +132026-04-21 O 75840.97 H 76927.57 L 74821.57 C 76336.15 · HOLD +142026-04-22 O 76336.14 H 79472.82 L 76132.95 C 78178.23 · HOLD +142026-04-23 O 78178.22 H 78662.50 L 76960.00 C 78257.48 · HOLD +142026-04-24 O 78257.48 H 78581.93 L 77264.08 C 77437.13 · HOLD +132026-04-25 O 77437.13 H 77885.35 L 77140.23 C 77625.00 · HOLD +162026-04-26 O 77625.00 H 78961.00 L 77326.51 C 78657.55 · HOLD +182026-04-27 O 78657.55 H 79485.66 L 76459.64 C 77371.32 · HOLD +162026-04-28 O 77371.32 H 77478.00 L 75666.60 C 76342.77 · HOLD +142026-04-29 O 76342.78 H 77904.93 L 74937.52 C 75780.00 · HOLD +142026-04-30 O 75780.00 H 76669.14 L 75323.65 C 76346.57 · HOLD +142026-05-01 O 76346.58 H 78914.12 L 76320.42 C 78231.13 · HOLD +182026-05-02 O 78231.13 H 79199.48 L 78040.00 C 78686.85 · HOLD +192026-05-03 O 78686.84 H 79447.00 L 78084.08 C 78568.57 · HOLD +192026-05-04 O 78568.58 H 80776.99 L 78202.00 C 79861.01 · HOLD +212026-05-05 O 79861.01 H 81791.48 L 79808.72 C 80905.52 · HOLD +222026-05-06 O 80905.53 H 82850.00 L 80731.14 C 81447.01 · BUY +242026-05-07 O 81447.01 H 81708.32 L 79500.00 C 80006.00 · BUY +212026-05-08 O 80006.00 H 80500.00 L 79181.48 C 80193.17 · BUY +222026-05-09 O 80193.18 H 81080.00 L 80129.85 C 80678.40 · BUY +222026-05-10 O 80678.41 H 82479.32 L 80279.77 C 82210.07 · BUY +222026-05-11 O 82210.07 H 82380.00 L 80462.97 C 81745.65 · BUY +222026-05-12 O 81745.66 H 81788.00 L 79843.59 C 80504.47 · BUY +232026-05-13 O 80504.47 H 81324.64 L 78754.65 C 79313.61 · BUY +212026-05-14 O 79313.61 H 82048.13 L 78922.00 C 81089.99 · BUY +232026-05-15 O 81090.00 H 81664.45 L 78659.00 C 79113.21 · BUY +192026-05-16 O 79113.20 H 79227.77 L 77640.00 C 78148.05 · BUY +172026-05-17 O 78148.05 H 78599.99 L 76735.16 C 77457.67 · HOLD +152026-05-18 O 77457.67 H 77800.00 L 76051.00 C 77001.87 · HOLD +152026-05-19 O 77001.88 H 77414.62 L 76144.71 C 76834.36 · HOLD +162026-05-20 O 76834.36 H 77853.04 L 76516.74 C 77552.23 · HOLD +172026-05-21 O 77552.24 H 78200.00 L 76719.47 C 77615.52 · HOLD +162026-05-22 O 77615.52 H 77900.00 L 75359.18 C 75539.50 · HOLD +92026-05-23 O 75539.50 H 77404.18 L 74289.60 C 76752.01 · HOLD +122026-05-24 O 76752.00 H 77543.15 L 76108.00 C 77064.96 · HOLD +142026-05-25 O 77064.96 H 77905.52 L 76914.25 C 77322.01 · HOLD +152026-05-26 O 77322.01 H 78080.00 L 75677.97 C 75930.01 · HOLD +102026-05-27 O 75930.01 H 76174.15 L 74243.99 C 74449.30 · HOLD +72026-05-28 O 74449.31 H 74590.77 L 72582.82 C 73617.51 · HOLD +62026-05-29 O 73617.52 H 74514.10 L 72512.49 C 73460.78 · HOLD +62026-05-30 O 73460.78 H 74143.76 L 73216.00 C 73884.38 · HOLD +72026-05-31 O 73884.38 H 74275.66 L 73400.00 C 73674.39 · HOLD +52026-06-01 O 73674.39 H 74092.00 L 70686.68 C 71408.90 · HOLD +12026-06-02 O 71408.90 H 71408.90 L 66193.00 C 66760.83 · HOLD -72026-06-03 O 66760.84 H 67516.00 L 64092.49 C 64142.75 · HOLD -82026-06-04 O 64142.75 H 64764.32 L 61383.56 C 63885.99 · HOLD -72026-06-05 O 63885.99 H 63978.00 L 59130.91 C 61056.47 · HOLD -82026-06-06 O 61056.47 H 61530.05 L 59500.00 C 60884.62 · HOLD -82026-06-07 O 60884.62 H 64234.68 L 60746.00 C 63332.01 · HOLD -102026-06-08 O 63332.01 H 64200.00 L 62408.00 C 63085.99 · HOLD -102026-06-09 O 63086.00 H 63526.01 L 60780.00 C 61730.00 · HOLD -112026-06-10 O 61730.00 H 62857.99 L 60755.00 C 61510.99 · HOLD -112026-06-11 O 61510.99 H 63933.02 L 61510.99 C 63625.99 · HOLD -122026-06-12 O 63626.00 H 64394.44 L 62829.81 C 63580.01 · HOLD -122026-06-13 O 63580.00 H 64762.77 L 63418.66 C 64458.01 · HOLD -122026-06-14 O 64458.01 H 65800.00 L 63678.83 C 65746.45 · HOLD -122026-06-15 O 65746.45 H 67292.15 L 65354.00 C 66328.74 · HOLD -112026-06-16 O 66328.74 H 66992.00 L 65360.92 C 65675.01 · HOLD -112026-06-17 O 65675.02 H 66445.93 L 63915.77 C 64509.40 · HOLD -122026-06-18 O 64509.40 H 64806.00 L 62272.07 C 62958.01 · HOLD -132026-06-19 O 62958.01 H 63666.00 L 62316.44 C 63543.91 · HOLD -122026-06-20 O 63543.90 H 64388.00 L 63184.21 C 64298.01 · HOLD -122026-06-21 O 64298.01 H 64588.00 L 63270.00 C 63311.99 · HOLD -132026-06-22 O 63312.00 H 65622.83 L 63312.00 C 64020.01 · HOLD -122026-06-23 O 64020.01 H 64275.38 L 61938.00 C 62734.57 · HOLD -142026-06-24 O 62734.57 H 63239.06 L 59102.70 C 61077.99 · HOLD -152026-06-25 O 61078.00 H 61962.40 L 58115.01 C 59794.00 · HOLD -152026-06-26 O 59794.64 H 60759.99 L 58337.00 C 60097.27 · HOLD -152026-06-27 O 60097.27 H 60941.17 L 59855.16 C 60029.00 · HOLD -152026-06-28 O 60029.01 H 60545.01 L 58905.00 C 59577.01 · HOLD -162026-06-29 O 59577.01 H 60780.57 L 58900.01 C 60260.21 · HOLD -162026-06-30 O 60260.20 H 60276.54 L 58201.00 C 58624.71 · HOLD -172026-07-01 O 58624.71 H 61334.00 L 57800.19 C 60024.00 · HOLD -162026-07-02 O 60024.00 H 62200.00 L 59588.00 C 61560.00 · HOLD -112026-07-03 O 61560.00 H 62979.86 L 61248.86 C 62583.26 · HOLD -72026-07-04 O 62583.26 H 63461.99 L 62328.24 C 63144.01 · HOLD -62026-07-05 O 63144.01 H 63999.00 L 62436.59 C 63650.00 · HOLD -12026-07-06 O 63650.01 H 64700.00 L 61306.84 C 64042.02 · HOLD +02026-07-07 O 64042.93 H 64314.00 L 62671.39 C 63363.99 · HOLD -22026-07-08 O 63364.00 H 63761.99 L 61544.56 C 62290.00 · HOLD -52026-07-09 O 62290.01 H 63500.00 L 61705.29 C 63230.00 · HOLD -12026-07-10 O 63230.01 H 64692.83 L 62926.01 C 64161.72 · HOLD +22026-07-11 O 64161.72 H 64504.11 L 63819.00 C 63819.00 · HOLD +12026-07-12 O 63819.01 H 64290.11 L 63640.83 C 63780.00 · HOLD +12026-07-13 O 63780.00 H 64425.00 L 61824.97 C 62334.52 · HOLD -42026-07-14 O 62334.52 H 65100.00 L 62272.20 C 65043.98 · HOLD +32026-07-15 O 65043.99 H 65600.00 L 64485.00 C 64756.28 · HOLD +32026-07-16 O 64756.28 H 64997.52 L 63748.74 C 63830.20 · HOLD +02026-07-17 O 63830.20 H 64387.99 L 62537.56 C 63931.67 · HOLD +22026-07-18 O 63931.67 H 64865.00 L 63886.65 C 64834.22 · HOLD +72026-07-19 O 64834.21 H 64967.25 L 64280.00 C 64722.54 · HOLD +72026-07-20 O 64722.55 H 65799.00 L 63100.00 C 65255.51 · HOLD +82026-07-21 O 65255.51 H 66956.15 L 65148.75 C 66556.16 · HOLD +122026-07-22 O 66556.15 H 66739.89 L 65553.67 C 66114.49 · HOLD +102026-07-23 O 66114.50 H 66313.14 L 64650.00 C 65098.97 · HOLD +92026-07-24 O 65098.98 H 65808.59 L 63739.75 C 64139.99 · HOLD +72026-07-25 O 64140.00 H 64475.28 L 63810.00 C 64375.00 · HOLD +92026-07-26 O 64375.01 H 65577.00 L 64293.81 C 65399.99 · HOLD +122026-07-27 O 65400.00 H 65744.60 L 63605.56 C 63755.86 · HOLD +62026-07-28 O 63755.86 H 64100.00 L 62742.47 C 63915.00 · HOLD +72026-07-29 O 63915.00 H 64744.81 L 63267.34 C 63984.28 · HOLD +72026-07-30 O 63984.29 H 65176.60 L 63603.92 C 64780.02 · HOLD +102026-07-31 O 64780.03 H 65409.56 L 62466.00 C 62887.88 · HOLD +32026-08-01 O 62887.88 H 63150.00 L 62275.00 C 62823.64 · HOLD +22026-08-02 O 62823.65 H 63796.33 L 62806.58 C 63570.00 · HOLD +42026-08-03 O 63570.01 H 64080.00 L 62300.00 C 63520.00 · HOLD +42026-08-04 O 63520.00 H 64549.16 L 63322.01 C 64106.56 · HOLD +5Aug 2025Oct 2025Dec 2025Feb 2026Apr 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026BTCUSDT · log scale · white = 200DMAR3 raw score
Trend structure
-0.29
30/90/365d momentum
-0.39
365d drawdown value
+0.90
Quote-volume confirmation
-0.00
Relative valuation
+0.36
30d volatility
+0.48

Full-history replay

StrategyCAGRMax DDSortinoCalmarSwitches
R3.131.5%-51.2%1.390.6281
200DMA33.2%-64.3%1.320.5260
Buy & hold33.0%-76.6%1.130.431
Static 57%23.6%-53.9%1.130.441

Assumes next-day exposure and 25 bps cost per unit of exposure change. R3.1 wins 3/4 headline metrics versus 200DMA and reduces maximum drawdown by 33.1% versus buy-and-hold.

Time-slice stability

PeriodVerdictCAGRMax DDSortinoCalmar
2019–2020RESEARCH_CANDIDATE108.9%-45.0%2.772.42
2021–2022RESEARCH_CANDIDATE3.6%-51.2%0.440.07
2023–2024RESEARCH_CANDIDATE76.3%-16.3%3.194.69
2025–latestREJECT-14.3%-33.5%-0.79-0.43

These slices are diagnostics, not independent untouched holdouts. Rules were not fitted inside each slice.